It
appears that India is also going the way of the United States which is now
caught in a
permanent campaign mode, while also being captured by the
economic elites and organized groups which represent business interests who
have substantial independent impacts on U.S. government policy, while average
citizens and mass-based interest groups have little or no independent influence.
While
the General Elections to the Lok Sabha have been conducted in 1951, 1957, 1962,
1967, 1971, 1977, 1980, 1984, 1989, 1991, 1996, 1998, 1999, 2004, 2009, 2014,
the elections to State Assemblies have become asynchronous starting in late
1970s. The reasons include the back-to-back elections in 1977 and 1980, and
also the increasing application of President’s Rule in various states[1].
During
the last general election in 2009, only the following states - Andhra Pradesh,
Arunachal Pradesh, Haryana, Jharkhand, Maharashtra, Orissa, Sikkim, went to
polls for the State Assemblies, despite technically being in sync with the first
general elections in 1951. (The State Reorganization carried out in 1956 did
not have a major impact on the electoral cycle with major states like Uttar
Pradesh, Bihar, Punjab, Madhya Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal, etc. being
in sync in the next general election of 1957).
Since
then we have seen elections for Bihar in 2010; Assam, Kerala, Puducherry, Tamil
Nadu and West Bengal in 2011; Goa, Manipur, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh,
Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh in 2012; and, Tripura, Meghalaya, Nagaland,
Karnataka, Delhi, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Mizoram in 2013.
2014
will see Assembly elections for Andhra Pradesh (or its successor states of
Andhra Pradesh and Telangana), Arunachal Pradesh, Odisha, Sikkim along with the
general elections while Maharashtra and Haryana will go to polls at the end of
the year.
While
the big picture is painted above, individual states are also affected by the
asynchronous electoral schedule of the panchayat and municipal elections. The
exception again here is Andhra Pradesh, which conducted the elections for local
bodies on April 6 and 11, 2014 (with results withheld till May 7, 2014), while
the general elections were conducted on April 30, for the new state of
Telangana and May 7, for the rest of Andhra Pradesh.[2]
To
put the above information in context it is useful to look at a review of
‘permanent campaign’ as captured by Catherine Needham, in her article, “Brand
Leaders: Clinton, Blair and the Limitations of the Permanent Campaign”[3] as
follows:
“The topography of the permanent campaign
shifts between authors, but all share [Hugh] Heclo’s assumption that it is a
‘process seeking to manipulate sources of public approval to engage in the act
of governing itself’. Common features include a prominent role for campaign consultants in government; the use of
polling as a strategic device to steer policy-making and presentation; a
pre-occupation with fund-raising for the next election; a media fascination
with the ‘horse race’ aspects of political life; and high-stakes posturing over
every issue, with public support becoming a bargaining chip between
politicians, parties and interest groups.” (Emphasis Added)[4]
Not so surprisingly, we have seen an
increased visibility of campaign consultants in the recent elections with global branding
companies promoting the ‘India Shining’ campaign in 2004 and the ‘Jai Ho’
and “Aam Aadmi” campaign of the Congress party. In the current election campaign
McCann Worldgroup, led by lyricist & adman Prasoon Joshi and Dentsu &
Taproot have bagged the contracts of the BJP and Congress respectively (For more stories visit here and here.) The astronomical figure of Rupees
2000 Crores cited here,
makes one wonder whether the limit on poll expenditure by candidates is even
meaningful, or whether we should also be going the US way which has removed
limits on donations through the Citizens
United Case[5].
It has been said that prospective candidates ‘buy’ nominations which they would
have to recoup after being elected and also prepare for future elections.
One of the severe results of the ‘permanent
campaign’ is the deadlock in the Indian Parliament where the ruling and opposition
parties have started adopting a high-stakes posturing on every issue rather
than engaging in measured debate and discussions. The antagonism has affected
delivery of centrally supported or funded programs as it is the responsibility of
the states to actually deliver any program.
And finally, the Indian media has taken a
thorough fascination to the ‘horse race’ aspects of political life and it is
epitomised in the current election season where they project Mr. Narendra Modi
and Mr. Rahul Gandhi as locked in a ‘Prime Minsiterial’ Race.
[1] A detailed look
between 1980-2009 needs to be done to assert these claims.
[2] One needs to look at closely
at the electoral cycle for local elections in other states too, before arriving
at a conclusion.
[3] Needham, Catherine. 2005. "Brand Leaders: Clinton, Blair and
the Limitations of the Permanent Campaign". Political Studies. 53 (2):
343-361.
[4] For more specific
reading refer to Mann, Thomas E., and Norman J. Ornstein. 2000. The permanent
campaign and its future. Washington, D.C: American Enterprise Institute.
Available at http://www.aei.org/files/2000/11/01/20040218_book188.pdf
[5] If each of the 545 winning candidates spend the poll limit of 70
lakh rupees, the total expenditure of these candidates will come to Rupees
381.5 Crores.
